Updated nationally determined contributions collectively raise ambition levels but need strengthening further to keep Paris goals within reach

Article - July 6, 2022

The article analyses the GHG emissions and macroeconomic impacts of the new/updated NDCs submitted by 156 countries up until January 2022 under the Paris Agreement; and finds that they bring about an additional reduction of about 3.8 and 3.9 GtCO2eq on global emission levels by 2030 compared to the previously submitted NDCs (October 2020).

Still however this reduction must be about three times greater to allow keeping global temperature increase to well below 2 °C, and even seven times greater for 1.5 °C according to the study. Nine G20 economies have pledged stronger emission reduction targets for 2030 in their updated NDCs, leading to an additional aggregated GHG emission reduction of about 3.3 GtCO2eq but two G20 economies have submitted new targets that will lead to an increase in emissions of about 0.3 GtCO2eq. The updated NDCs of non-G20 economies contain further net reductions.

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