The European Commission has published today the EU Reference Scenario 2020, one of its key analysis tools in the areas of energy, transport, and climate action.

Having contributed to this periodic exercise effectively since 1990, we are once again extremely proud to have delivered a significant part of the modelling and reporting work for the 2020 publication in close cooperation with IIASA and EuroCARE – members of the modelling consortium – and the European Commission and in consultation with national experts and stakeholders.

The novelty of the present work lies in that it mirrors the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) of the Member States in accordance with the provisions of the Governance Regulation. By doing so, the Reference Scenario has acted as a comprehensive analytical basis of the FitFor55, since all the policy scenarios explored in that context have been essentially an upscaling of the NECPs.

PRIMES energy system model, core pillar of the modelling capacity delivering energy, transport, and CO2 emission projections, along with the GEM-E3 macroeconomic model have been used.

The modelling results and report document can be found at: https://ec.europa.eu/energy/data-analysis/energy-modelling/eu-reference-scenario-2020_en