The Prometheus model is a comprehensive world energy model with innovative features: it integrates stochastic relations and so all exogenous variables – parameters are stochastic, following explicit probability distributions, including covariance. Therefore, all model results are also stochastic (probability distributions). Among others, stochastic distributions are used for technology change and learning by doing, as well as for fossil fuel resources, both conventional and unconventional. Prometheus models the world energy system divided into 10 regions and produces yearly projections up to 2050; the update to 2070 is ongoing. The model includes a set of long time series (IEA data mostly) on which econometric estimations are carried out. The model produces projections of energy demand by sector (industry, domestic, transport), power generation (representing about 25 technologies), RES, and hydrogen supply and use. Prometheus puts emphasis on oil and gas resources, while coal is assumed to have rather abundant supplies relative to production prospects in the projection time horizon. The model incorporates uncertainty surrounding the amount of oil and gas resources that are yet to be discovered. Data are mostly calibrated on estimation of resources by USGS. The model produces projections of fossil fuel prices, which depend on demand, supply, technology and resources. As all outputs are probabilistic, fossil fuel price projections take the form of probability distributions. The model includes CO2 emissions and can simulate emission reduction pathways.
