Transport sector analysis

Transport sector sensitivity analysis: Scenarios and variants

The aim of the study was to assess the impacts of key policy assumptions that enable the acceleration of the decarbonisation of the transport sector by 2050. The framework of the analysis lied within the context of a transition of the EU transport system towards meeting the targets for 2030 and 2050, as set in the “winter package” recently communicated by the European Commission and the Communication on Transport, entitled “A European Strategy for Low-Emission Mobility”. The study employed the PRIMES-TREMOVE transport model to assess key policy assumptions related to:
• The evolution of the powertrain costs for battery electric cars, hydrogen fuel cars and plug-in hybrid cars.
• The evolution of fuel prices: electricity, hydrogen, gasoline and diesel.
• The coverage and density of recharging infrastructure for electric vehicles and the hydrogen refueling infrastructure.
• The implementation of incentives to purchase advanced vehicle powertrains. The incentives were in the form of subsidies provided by the state and were subtracted from the vehicle purchasing price.
• The setting of a ban on the national sales of conventional diesel or gasoline cars.
• The setting of a ban on the circulation of conventional cars operating on diesel or gasoline in the metropolitan and other urban areas.
• The impacts of the associated policies referred to the evolution of GHG emissions, energy demand, costs, and structure of the fleet.

Client :  Toyota Motor Europe NV/SA
Date :  2017
Services :  Transport analysis based on scenarios quantified using the PRIMES-TREMOVE Transport Model